The future simulation uses the Pseudo Global Warming approach (PGW) 25, 26 by adding climate change perturbations to the ERA-Interim boundary conditions and applies to the same period (2000–2013). The retrospective simulation (also denoted as control run CTL) downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis 24 over the period from October 2000 to September 2013. In this study, hourly data from a 13-year retrospective convection-permitting climate simulation with 4-km grid spacing and a 13-year future climate counterpart are used to investigate underlying future changes in flash floods. Convection-permitting models, therefore, offer a valuable alternative for improved understanding of climate change impacts on flash flooding 23. ![]() In contrast, convection-permitting models that operate at kilometer-scale grid spacing 17, 19 start to resolve convective processes resulting in largely improved simulations of sub-daily extreme precipitation rates 17, 20, 21, 22. GCM-based climate change-related flood studies are limited in assessing changes in fine-scale flood dynamics that are particularly important for flash flooding 2, 10, 18. Global Climate Models (GCMs), which are mainly designed for simulating large-scale climate variables, poorly represent mesoscale weather systems because of their coarse resolutions (>10 km) and insufficient parameterization schemes 16, 17. Although the Clausius-Clapeyron equation infers a theoretical 7% increase in atmospheric water holding capacity per degree Celsius warming 12, extreme precipitation might be increasing even more due to changes in storm structure 13, storm dynamics 14, and large-scale weather patterns 15. The central question for the hydrologic science community, practitioners, and more urgently the weather service agencies becomes: How do future floods evolve under a changing climate 9?įlood risks are largely tied to increased precipitation extremes induced by a warmer climate in addition to more direct anthropogenic effects 10, 11. Among all types of floods, flash floods are one of the most devastating subsets, accounting for nearly half of those economic losses 6, 7, 8. According to the National Weather Service storm reports, floods have cost more than 159 billion US dollars and 2000 fatalities from 1996 to 2020 (last access: 27 July 2021), let alone immeasurable damage to ecosystems. ![]() Floods in the United States are the most devastating water-related natural hazards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
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